Essays about the future: Wales

By Eluned Morgan MS, First Minister of Wales and Leader of Welsh Labour

Wales will have been transformed in twenty years’ time into a thriving nation that has shaken off the shadows cast by industrial decline a generation ago, and will have stemmed the exodus of young people from our rural areas.

The ambition and optimism of the previous ten years will have paid off, with Wales leading the technological revolution in the UK. Productivity will have increased, because of extra investment in technological advances, and we will have made sure, through legislation, that employees feel the benefit of that increased efficiency with higher wages. People will not just have more money but work fewer hours, giving them more time to see friends, take an active part in their community and enjoy culture, sport, music or personal hobbies.

It will be a proud, prosperous nation where individuals no longer have to juggle several insecure jobs to make a living. Instead, people will only need one job, and they will have free regular training, funded by the Welsh Government, so that they can keep their skills updated by advances in technology or science, so they are well equipped to grasp new opportunities.

The payback to the Welsh Government will be a stronger economy able to invest in people and structures for the future.

In twenty years’ time, the many billions of pounds of investment that Wales is attracting now will be embedded in our economy. There will be new industries in communities across Wales taking advantage of the vast amounts of clean green electricity being generated high up on our hillsides and from our tides. More widely, Wales’ natural resources will be managed and determined by the Welsh Labour government so that people living in Wales are direct beneficiaries from developments in energy and industry more widely. So much so, that former mining communities in the Valleys and North East Wales will have caught up with communities along the M4 in South East Wales.

Technological developments will not just enable Wales to continue to lead in sectors like AI, advanced manufacturing, cyber security and robotics, it will also ease day-to-day life.

Technology will have already been used extensively in the health sector to ease pressure on the NHS. In 2046, we will be able to treat more people at home, and encourage behaviour change so that people are incentivised to live in a way that keeps them healthy and able to work. As a result, people will have started to take more responsibility for their own health and feel happier and fitter as a result.

In 2026, many people in Wales are not able to work at all, or work as much as they would like to, because of ill health or pain. In twenty years’ time, the number of people in that position will have been radically reduced and more people will be working.

The Welsh Government will have shaken up skills training so that everyone can be included in Wales’ workforce, everyone can participate and contribute, whatever their ability. That way we will have more cohesive and supportive communities where everyone feels valued. Research shows us that a sense of purpose and being part of a group helps to improve people’s mental health, too.

The lack of investment in public services by UK Tory governments since the millennium will have been repaired by Welsh Labour governments. People’s lives will have become easier. Cheap reliable public transport will transform journeys to work into social events, rather than an expensive chore.

Childcare and elder care will have been merged in community hubs, building intergenerational links and making it easier for adults to balance work and their caring responsibilities. These will be paid for by increased tax revenue as more people will be able to work. No longer will they be held back by the lack of affordable childcare or because they are trying to look after children and older relatives at the same time.

Now, in 2026, in rural areas young people feel they have to leave their communities for work or to find homes that they can afford. That is leading to depopulation, and with fewer people there and less money being spent in rural communities, there are fewer shops, pubs and cafes. This matters for a wide range of reasons including loss of culture and in many communities weakening the Welsh language. It also makes our rural areas less attractive to tourists.

By 2046, the massive expansion of clean energy and grid infrastructure that will have taken place will have incentivised technologically advanced companies to move closer to sources of green energy, mainly in non-urban areas. They will provide a wider range of employment in rural communities and that will attract more people to live there.

Energy bills will no longer be an issue for households. In towns and cities people will be able to heat their homes by heating networks reusing excess heat from industry. In more rural areas, households within an area around the route of electricity pylons will see their bills reduced. The Crown Estate will be devolved and the money from the leasing of the seabed for floating wind turbines will be used to cut people’s bills.

In twenty years, with more leisure time because of higher productivity, young families will want to live closer to nature again. The fashion for scrolling social media will have passed, and young people will recognise how previous generations had suffered physically and mentally from fast culture and losing their connection to nature.

After twenty years of action to revive our rivers and clean our coast, salmon, insects, rare flowers and hares have returned – biodiversity will have reversed its decline.

The impact of climate change over the last twenty years has been a challenge but since we stopped using fossil fuels to drive our economy, in so many ways, its acceleration has reduced. We have been spending more of our budget on protecting communities from flooding. That has been partly paid for by the Welsh wealth fund set up by the Welsh Labour government fifteen years ago. In addition to that, the nature-based solutions introduced to hold water in the uplands and reduce levels of water flowing into towns have paid off and helped the restoration of nature upstream.

Overall life in Wales will be less insecure, more balanced and more inclusive.

That will have led to a sense of pride in our nation and strong sense of community.

By Rhun ap Iorwerth MS, Leader of Plaid Cymru

To imagine the Wales of 2046, two decades from now, it is worth firstly reflecting on the changes we have experienced throughout the last twenty years, and the extent to which the consequences still impact our daily lives.

In March of 2006, Twitter, as it was known then, co-founder Jack Dorsey posted the first ever tweet, setting in motion a revolution in the way we have communicated with each other ever since. In September of the same year, it was announced that a decade of Blairism was approaching its end with the then-Prime Minister announcing his intention to step down in 2007. Closer to home, the Government of Wales Act became law, transforming our then-National Assembly into a fully-fledged legislature.

Little did we know how these varying issues all sharing a chapter in history would continue to shape our society, politics and government today. Social media dominates our lives, the Labour Party’s contorted path back to power has taken many unanticipated turns, and the landscape of Welsh politics is shifting beneath our feet as the most important election in our history draws near.

We can never fully foretell the consequences of change – intended or otherwise – but as the individuals wanting to lead that change, we can commit to a set of values, which means that our motivations are driven by creating a fairer, greener, more prosperous future for our nation.

Despite the 2011 referendum granting the then-Assembly full primary law-making powers, conferring upon our government a sense of new and added responsibility, its central machine has since shrunk. The latest publicly available figures show that fewer people are employed by the Welsh Government today compared to 2010. More powers, a devastating Brexit to navigate, a pandemic to overcome and a larger Senedd on the horizon, all whilst our Government’s wingspan has been clipped at a time when the nation should be flying higher. As we look ahead to the second quartile of the century, we cannot divorce the dimensions of our administration from that of our ambition. Good policy and better outcomes demand effective and efficient government, yes, but well-resourced, too.

Future-proofing the state requires a certain state of mind.

In a Cardiff University Wales Governance Centre lecture in January 2024, I reflected on the hum of the electoral cycle and its somewhat corrosive influence on decision making. If short-term thinking is a threat to the common good, are we asking the wrong question? By 2046, I hope Wales will have been able to cast off its current fixation with sticking-plaster solutions and embed longer-term thinking into its governance by making prevention and sustainability central to its ethos.

Take the NHS for example, set to mark its 98th birthday in 2046. I struggle to imagine a Wales without its most treasured public service and it is not a future Plaid Cymru wishes to countenance. We know for a fact that our population is likely to have a longer life expectancy in twenty years’ time and so we must better prepare for the challenges this brings. That is why a Plaid Cymru government would press ahead with the work started as part of the Cooperation Agreement on developing a National Care Service. By 2046, we want to see far better integration with health, and a joined-up approach to releasing capacity in hospitals whilst giving the individual adequate and dignified care at home.

The technological revolution must be harnessed for the benefit of public health, too. Whilst the immediate priority may be to bring down waiting lists, for the long term we must explore how digitisation can make healthcare more accessible to the citizen, ending the reliance on paperwork and phone calls, and crucially, accelerating progress in areas such as diagnostics.

And whilst an NHS, free at the point of need, must remain a constant in our lives – re-imagining Wales and embracing the evolution of devolution is not only optimal but obligatory.

Wales’s journey towards some degree of fiscal autonomy has been frustratingly slow. When it comes to the major economic levers that could kick-start decades of greater prosperity, the Welsh Government has been unwilling to ask for them and the UK Government unwilling to grant them. So in two decades’ time, I want to see a Senedd with economic powers that will enable us to devise a strategy around what works for Wales, not Westminster. In the meantime, a Plaid Cymru government would establish a new economic development agency, spearheading efforts to promote growth and innovation, and giving small and medium-sized businesses the support they need.

Finally, I hope the children born in 2046 will have a better start in life than that afforded to today’s youngest generation. I want Plaid Cymru’s transformational free childcare policy to be the first step on that journey, alongside taking inspiration from the Scottish Child Payment with a Welsh pilot targeting the families most in need.

A Wales where foodbanks aren’t the norm or charity the default, of transitions which are just, prosperity shared and powers accrued for a purpose. A Wales of literate children and looked-after elders. A confident, go-getting Wales, internationalist in its outlook and assured enough to stand on its own two feet.

The challenges are many, but so are the numbers who want to see our great nation succeed.

By allowing ourselves to think big, and crucially long-term, we can, through agility and alliances, build a resilient, resourceful and rewarding Wales which will embody progressive values and hopefully stand the test of time.

Darren Millar MS, Leader of the Welsh Conservatives

Wales, after 26 years of Labour governance, routinely propped up by Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrat politicians, is well and truly broken.

Across all key markers, be that NHS emergency department performance and waiting times, PISA educational rankings, or pay and unemployment, Wales finds itself at the bottom of UK league tables. This isn’t good enough.

The Welsh Conservatives have set out a positive long-term vision for the future of Wales and a credible, costed plan to fix Wales. It is a plan built on a belief in the people of Wales, their potential, and a confidence that our country will prosper with a new government that focuses on economic growth, personal responsibility, and delivering on people’s priorities.

It is a vision shaped by Conservative principles.

It sets out how our country can be transformed by lower taxes, better infrastructure, efficient public services and a relentless commitment to get our economy moving. We want Wales to be a country where families have more freedom over their own finances, high street businesses flourish in every community, and public money is invested in the essentials rather than wasted on vanity projects.

And we want Wales to be a nation where ambition is encouraged, opportunity is available in every town and region, and where prosperity becomes a reality for all who seek it.

We believe that this vision of a better Wales can be achieved with leadership that has a clear sense of purpose and direction, along with a strong and responsible plan for renewal.

One of the pillars of our mission is the goal of lowering the tax burden on individuals and businesses of Wales. For too long families here have faced rising costs and ever-increasing demands on their incomes, which regularly lag behind other parts of the UK. Our plan to cut the basic rate of income tax by 1p in the pound will save the average hardworking family in Wales £450 per year, offering much needed relief to the pockets of more than a million and a half workers.

It means that people will get to keep more of their hard-earned money, a greater proportion than any other part of the UK and they will have the opportunity to spend that money as they choose: to support their families, or support local businesses which strengthen their communities.

We can achieve this by making efficiency savings across bloated and bureaucratic Welsh Government departments and we have been clear that we would do it without cutting the health, schools or farming budgets.

We would also bring the era of excessive council tax rises in Wales to an end. It is wrong that people here pay a greater proportion of their income in council tax than over the border, in spite of taking home the lowest pay packets.

So we would cap council tax increases at a maximum of 5% and require councils to hold referendums to give residents a say if they want a bigger increase.

And we wouldn’t stop there.

We are committed to abolishing Welsh Stamp Duty (Land Transaction Tax) for all main homes. This would help first-time buyers and anyone moving up or down the housing ladder by increasing mobility in the housing market. People will have the opportunity to move more easily for work and feel more confident in their ability to start and grow their families. And it would fire up the Welsh economy, because house moves have a huge impact on spending as people invest in new kitchens, bathrooms, carpets, and local tradespeople as they kit out and do up their new homes.

Supporting businesses is another vital part of our plan to fix Wales. We want Wales to be open for business and to stimulate the growth we so desperately need. That’s why we would focus on growing priority sectors of our economy, including the aerospace industry, defence, tourism, and the food and drink industry.

We’d pave the way for inward investment and, instead of taxing tourists who stay overnight and spend in the Welsh economy, we’d welcome them!

Businesses have been clear that their tax burden and declining footfall are amongst the greatest challenges they face. We’ve listened to them and are ready to provide that support. That’s why we will scrap business rates for small firms, cut business rates for our high streets, and increase the availability of free parking to revive our struggling town centres.

In future decades, putting more money in people’s pockets, giving people the opportunity to own their own homes, and opening Wales for business will inject new life into communities left behind by politics.

Tax cuts must, of course, be matched with responsible spending.

That is why the Welsh Conservatives would embark on a bold project to rewire the state, to slash wasteful spending and cut bureaucracy. Every programme receiving taxpayers’ money should be both necessary and demonstrate value for money. When spending does not contribute to better public services or stronger economic growth it should be stopped. There is no acceptable reason for the Welsh Government’s Central Services and Administration Budget to have increased by as much as 40%, £136 million, since 2023 – we will scale it back.

But no example of waste is clearer than the irresponsible plans to expand the Senedd and increase the number of Members of the Welsh Parliament by a whopping 60%, adding £20 million per year to the cost of our democracy for no tangible benefit for the people of Wales.

It is a plan backed not only by Labour, Plaid and the Liberal Democrats, but also Reform, a party that claims to want to save money. They described the changes to the Senedd as an “exciting opportunity.” We disagree and that is why we are the only party in the Senedd that has committed to reversing the increase.

Frivolous spending on non-devolved areas is also rife within the current Welsh Government’s budget, from international relations and foreign aid, to justice and their cash-for-nothing basic income scheme – we say no more.

We’d end the multi-million pound expenditure on tree planting in Uganda, close the Welsh Government’s 20 overseas embassies which include offices in places like China, Qatar and the UAE, and immediately scrap Labour and Plaid’s Nation of Sanctuary plan. Our commitment to reduce spending on activities that fall outside devolved responsibilities keeps the government focused on its core duties: our NHS, schools and infrastructure.

On the latter, we would prioritise boosting connectivity throughout Wales and with economic centres elsewhere in the UK. North Wales Main Line electrification is essential, as is resolving broadband and mobile not-spots, and finally building an M4 relief road, upgrading the A55, delivering a third Menai Crossing, and scrapping the dreaded default 20mph speed limit. These plans will grow our economy by improving connectivity, reducing congestion, supporting business and improving access to work across Wales. We also reject Labour’s plans for road charging; the anti-motorist and urban centric agenda must end. Over the next couple of decades, such changes will create a modern and interconnected Wales ready to compete in the wider world.

Public services would no longer be neglected if we adopt our plan to fix Wales.

Unlike other parties, we won’t just promise to shovel money into our NHS and schools. We’d improve leadership, accountability and adopt a laser-like focus on outcomes.

Our plan to declare a health emergency will deliver a COVID-type response to the crisis in our NHS by surging bed capacity to improve emergency department and ambulance performance, introducing a GP access guarantee, and cutting excessive waits for treatment. It is totally unacceptable that patients in Wales are 400 times more likely to wait two years or more for treatment than patients over the border in England.

Introducing an NHS Leadership Register is also integral if we are to improve accountability in our health service. Other health professionals such as doctors or nurses are required to be registered, maintain standards, and can have their registration cancelled for serious failings. Why should senior NHS managers be any different? It’s wrong that failing managers are moved from one NHS body to the next instead of being banned from working in the NHS when things go seriously wrong.

In education, restoring discipline and respect, banning smartphones, and adopting a zero tolerance approach for bad behaviour with automatic exclusions for carrying weapons such as knives will engender a climate of respect for teachers and improve attendance.

Teaching Home Economics to make sure pupils learn life skills is also essential. At the moment, young people are leaving school without knowing what a mortgage is, how to pay bills, or how to cook a nutritious, affordable meal; we will put that right.

And we will also make sure that young people can read. It is shameful that a fifth of Welsh primary school leavers are functionally illiterate. This represents an atrocious failure of government.

England ditched the demonstrably poor cueing method for teaching children how to read and moved towards the far more effective phonics method years ago, while Welsh Labour Ministers held on to this outdated teaching method for decades.

We will fix our education system by promoting parental and pupil choice, focusing on academic rigour and proven teaching methods, and trusting teachers and parents to run their own schools via the introduction of academy schools, instead of a heavy-handed top-down approach to education.

And we will never sideline our countryside.

Farmers are the backbone of the economy in rural Wales. That’s why, as part of our plan to fix Wales, we will scrap the Sustainable Farming Scheme, ditch arbitrary tree planting targets, create a scheme that puts food security at its heart and to top it off, we will boost the farming budget by £100 million. We recognise the value of our farmers and the rural pound.

The next twenty years can be a story of confidence and success. The future can be brighter if Wales chooses growth over decline, responsibility over waste, and choice and personal responsibility over excessive state control.

That is our positive vision to fix Wales, and it is a vision that will deliver prosperity for decades to come.

By Llyr Powell, spokesperson for Reform UK Wales

The last quarter of a century of devolution has delivered fairly predictable elections to the Senedd.

Labour lead the government. Plaid will help Labour to govern. The Tories will sit in varying degrees of opposition. It was predictable politics, and the jeopardy of losing an election barely existed. As a result, Labour became complacent, and our standards in healthcare and education began to slide.

If polling is to be believed, Labour’s dominance in Wales might be coming to an end. After another quarter of a century, the old rules may no longer apply. Indeed, as the two-party system (or at least Labour and Tory dominance) seems set to crumble at a UK level, it’s hard to imagine it not having huge ramifications in Cardiff Bay.

The fact is that, for most of my lifetime, the idea of any party but Labour winning a Senedd election was an incredibly poor bet. Now we’re in a situation whereby it’s very unlikely Labour will top the poll in May.

One of the most successful political parties in British history is set to lose its grip on power, and not before time.

In May 2026, there’s an opportunity to rebuild the way the Senedd, the Welsh Government, the media and the third sector interact as the old Labour-dominated networks fizzle out.

Consensus may have delivered some benefits in the lives of those in the bubble, but it has locked out many people from decision making.

The circular Senedd chamber is designed to build a more collaborative politics, and there’s no doubt that on a number of issues, there is consensus.

But consensus within politics at all costs should not always be the aim. We have to ask whether the Senedd chamber is truly reflecting the mood of the nation if there is consensus among politicians.

No consensus should be above challenge or debate. If we are going to move forward from Labour’s one-party state here in Wales and if the Senedd is going to become a more mature democratic institution, we should not be afraid, on all sides, to hold open debates and not shut them down.

Too often, the nexus of politicians, lobbyists and journalists in Wales have sung from the same hymn sheet, and excluded the views of vast numbers of the Welsh people from public life.

If the Senedd is going to maintain popular consent, it will have to become a more open marketplace of ideas.

Otherwise many people will continue to feel that Cardiff Bay is just as distant as Whitehall.

I know from my own experience in recent months the hostility that is shown to political outsiders from the establishment here in Wales.

While it’s understandable that political parties want to rail against a newcomer party threatening their seats, it has been shocking to see the media, often state-funded, rallying around the establishment.

Something that needs to be changed if we’re going to have a Senedd that is fairly scrutinised is the media landscape in Wales. There are many fantastic, hardworking reporters in Wales, but in many cases they are stretched too thin. We need more journalists here, from more organisations, shining a light on what goes on in the cafes of Cardiff Bay and the corridors of Cathays Park.

The solution is not more taxpayer funded reporters. We’ve seen this tried in Wales and it has set our political system back by a generation. A mature democratic ecosystem should not be handing taxpayers’ money to blatant partisans posing as journalists to defend a failed consensus. That is frankly beneath us here in Wales, and the Welsh people deserve far better.

I am optimistic that, with the one-party state set to break up here in Wales in May, and with politics in Wales becoming more competitive, the media interest will increase. What I can say from a Reform point of view is that we are one of the most transparent political parties that will have ever been in Cardiff Bay if we’re lucky enough to be elected.

When I stood in Caerphilly I barely said no to an interview before polling day. I’m proud that, almost every week, Nigel Farage takes questions from the press in front of the cameras. This is not a group of reporters who rely on him for funding, but a politically diverse press pool, covering politics in a range of formats for a range of audiences.

If we have an ecosystem of curious, inquisitive, independent and properly staffed media in Wales, the cosy links between the lobbying groups and the politicians will be properly scrutinised, and the Senedd can begin to step out of the darkness.

By Jane Dodds MS, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats

For too long, Wales has been told what it cannot be. Decisions have been handed down instead of shaped by our communities. But Wales is ready to write a different story—one built on trust, ambition, and our people’s strength. The Wales I imagine in 2046 is a nation where every community thrives with prosperity, opportunity, and renewed confidence.

The most critical shift we must make is moving power from Cardiff Bay into communities’ hands. By 2046, Wales must have embedded genuine local power into governance.

A Community Empowerment Act should give communities the legal right and resources to take ownership of local assets and shape their economic futures. Multi-year funding settlements will enable local authorities to plan strategically rather than lurch from crisis to crisis.

A £500 million regeneration fund would back high streets, market towns, and urban centres, focused on Welsh small businesses. An Online Sales Levy would help level the playing field, with business rates replaced by 2046 with a fairer alternative.

Wales also needs stronger fiscal powers so we can design policies around Welsh priorities. With fairer revenue sharing and the ability to shape our own social security support, we can act on what matters most to the people who live here.

Wales has the chance to be a global leader in the green economy. Our coastline gives us huge potential in offshore wind, tidal power, and marine energy—and by 2046 these should be creating tens of thousands of secure, well-paid jobs.

Devolving the Crown Estate and reinvesting revenues from major energy developments would support Welsh businesses, local infrastructure, and long-term prosperity. Coastal towns facing industrial decline can become renewable energy hubs, with Holyhead leading in hydrogen and Port Talbot in offshore wind. Real, long-term jobs for local people, supported by lifelong learning guarantees and a clear Just Transition plan.

By 2046, Wales should also be recognised as a hub for artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and tech innovation—home to world-class research centres backed by strong public-private partnerships.

This economic shift must go hand-in-hand with environmental renewal. By 2046, our rivers should run clean, our air quality should rival the best in Europe, and our landscapes should be thriving, biodiverse habitats.

I’ve spent my life working with families who were doing everything right but still struggling. I know how talent and potential can be held back by circumstances beyond a person’s control. We cannot build a fair future unless we confront poverty head-on.

By 2046, every person in Wales—wherever they live—should have the chance to flourish. Universal free part-time childcare from 9 months to school age, supported by direct financial help for families, would give every child the strongest possible start. A Universal Basic Income would provide economic security for all, funded by a wealth tax ensuring those with the most contribute fairly.

We must also rebuild the foundations of strong communities: good housing, reliable public transport, and local services that people can depend on. Success shouldn’t only be measured in pounds and pence, but in whether children born in 2046 have opportunities their parents never had.

Our NHS and social care system is at a breaking point. By 2046, Wales must have a fully integrated health and social care system focused on prevention and community-based care. That means long-term investment in modern care facilities built around dignity and independence.

Community health hubs should bring services closer to people’s homes. Mental health support must be properly funded and easily accessible—not treated as secondary. By improving housing, reducing poverty, cleaning our environment, and strengthening social connections, we can create a Wales where wellbeing is supported before illness occurs.

Technology will help—faster diagnostics, virtual consultations, better data sharing—but it must support, not replace, the human relationships at the heart of care.

By 2046, Wales must be back in the European Union—back in our biggest trade market, with freedom of movement restored. As Wales reduces over-reliance on US influence, it can chart a confident, internationalist path based on cooperation, sustainability, and social justice.

Wales should be genuinely bilingual—with Welsh thriving in tech, business, and creative industries as a cultural and economic asset. And our diverse communities, including more recent arrivals, should feel fully part of Wales’s story. Our identities—Welsh, British, and European—can complement one another and strengthen who we are.

Wales does not have to settle. The next twenty years can be transformative if we choose ambition over resignation, trust our communities over centralised control, and invest in our people and environment with genuine commitment. Our best days lie ahead—if we choose them.