Essays about the future: Scotland

By John Swinney MSP, First Minister of Scotland, Leader of the SNP

Scotland stands at a moment of profound opportunity. The choices we make in the coming years will not simply shape the next Parliament; they will define the country our children and grandchildren inherit.

We have both the chance and the responsibility to build a better nation as an independent country that is more ambitious, fair, successful and confident in its identity and purpose.

This vision is rooted in the Scotland I know; growing up, working in and serving for most of my adult life. It is shaped by the people I meet every day: parents worried about bills, young people bursting with talent, small business owners full of ambition, NHS staff who go above and beyond. Their hopes and frustrations drive my determination to build a better Scotland.

Since coming to power, the SNP Scottish Government has acted to improve lives, and we have always sought to reflect Scotland’s values in the choices we make.

We have chosen to protect public services from the worst of Westminster austerity. We have chosen to invest in children and young people so that opportunity should never depend on postcode or privilege. We have chosen to back our industries, our innovators and our communities.

These choices have made a difference. Free prescriptions mean no one in Scotland has to choose between their health and the pound in their pocket. Free university tuition means ability – not income – determines their future. Our Scottish Child Payment is lifting families out of poverty. We have the lowest unemployment rate in the UK. Scotland has become the UK’s second-largest financial hub after London.

None of that happened by accident. It happened because the SNP made different choices in Scotland.

And, in the current climate – both nationally and internationally – it has never been more important to reflect and redouble our efforts to protect and improve Scotland’s future.

Inequality remains one of the greatest moral and economic challenges of our time. The United Kingdom has one of the highest levels of income and wealth inequality among developed nations, and living standards are flat as a pancake.

On an island as rich as the UK, that should be unacceptable.

Scotland can do better.

We have all the conditions to become one of the most equitable nations in Europe. A place where nobody struggles to access food, housing, or healthcare. Over the next twenty years, we can build on strong foundations and ensure that Scotland’s people and communities benefit fully from our vast resources.

That is entirely realistic. It is achievable if we are bold enough.

For me, it is simple: the people who live in Scotland should take the decisions that shape Scotland’s future and impact their lives.

Energy is the clearest example. With full control over energy policy, Scotland’s world class resources can help to reduce electricity bills by over a third, enshrine communities with the right to own up to 20% of onshore wind projects, and create energy savings for businesses of at least one-third.

We only have to look to Norway to see what is possible. They have used their energy wealth to secure its future. Scotland can too.

But our prosperity is about more than energy. Scotland has always been a nation of innovators. Scottish inventors have fundamentally shaped modern communication, transport, and healthcare – and I see that same spirit today in every town, island and city.

Scotland cannot simply adapt to the global economy, we must set the pace.

Properly harnessing and supporting our talent and resources is key to supporting the other priorities I have for Scotland.

Take, for example, our public services. It is clear that in the coming years, they must evolve to meet the needs of the 21st century. The policy decisions I have taken to reform Scotland’s public services – taking a holistic approach, embracing digital innovation, and empowering our frontline staff – is part of the journey to the new era we need for our National Health Service.

Over the next two decades, Scotland will transform health, social care, education, and justice systems to be fit for modern society and resilient for the future.

However, we will also continue to invest in our workforce, trust their expertise and give them the tools they need because the NHS is not just a system, it is the nurse who cares for their patient; and education is not just policy, it is the teacher who stays late to help a struggling pupil.

We must lead from the front and champion our values at every stage.

This includes our response to global issues as well as domestic. The climate emergency is one of the biggest challenges we face and tackling it is not optional – it is essential. I see it not only as a threat, but as an opportunity to lead.

Scotland must continue to invest in our just transition to a sustainable future and, throughout it, I will never accept a path that leaves workers or communities behind. Our move to sustainable energy should create jobs and thriving local economies – nobody should be left behind.

Looking ahead, the challenges before us are real – but so are the opportunities. The vision I have for our collective future is ambitious, but it is achievable – and it is defined by hope, and not division.

Ultimately, the future of Scotland must be a matter for the people of Scotland. People in Scotland must have the opportunity to choose a fresh start with independence.

I have never been more convinced that we can succeed and build the Scotland we know is possible.

By Russell Findlay MSP, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

I’m proud of Scotland. I have faith in my fellow Scots. And I believe that Scotland can have a better future – but that depends on what path we choose to take.

Over centuries, our spirited country on the windswept periphery of northern Europe has been globally synonymous with intelligence, innovation and enterprise.

After all, it was Scots who helped to build and run the greatest empire in human history.

But it is only by making different and better decisions, thereby fundamentally changing political direction, that we can hope to build an even better Scotland in 20 years’ time.

All politicians, no matter the hue of their party rosettes, should share the same goal of a modern and confident country that is peaceful, productive and prosperous.

A nation that again becomes a byword for invention, hard graft, decency and entrepreneurship.

Looking forward to where Scotland might be in two decades, I’m struck by the fact the SNP have been in office for almost that long.

Ordinary, hard-working Scots might pay little attention to the dramas of the Holyrood bubble.

But they are paying the price of the devolved administration’s chaotic mismanagement, punitive taxation and stifling interference.

The SNP’s tenure illustrates how things can change significantly, and for the worse, over a span of almost twenty years.

The Scottish NHS exists in a near-permanent state of crisis which has been accepted as the new normal by a succession of beige health ministers.

Our schools, once a byword for excellence, have declined to state of pitiful mediocrity with many young people being written off.

Transport, whether it’s lifeline ferries for island communities or pot-holed and dangerous roads, are a shambles.

Criminals are freed early en masse because the SNP have not built new prisons while presiding over a social experiment in which criminality is justified and excused.

Public services are at breaking point. Local councils have been underfunded and mismanaged to the point that housing and social care emergencies are also the new normal.

We have the worst drugs-death rate in Western Europe and the lowest life expectancy.

Yet Scots pay the highest taxes in the UK. Workers and businesses are squeezed for ever more while getting less in return.

Under the SNP’s left-wing agenda – which is big-state-knows-best and anti-business – economic growth has stagnated, no matter what highly selective statistics are spouted by John Swinney.

There’s already a £2billion black hole in Scotland’s annual welfare spending.

With an ever-diminishing tax base, we can’t afford to continue this profligacy – something that no other party is willing to admit.

In 20 years’ time, I hope to see these damaging trends reversed, because if they’re not, then the country will inevitably end up poorer.

This will require the abandonment of the ideology of two high-tax, left-wing governments – Keir Starmer’s in London and John Swinney’s in Edinburgh.

And it will mean ending the corrosive nationalist obsession with breaking up the UK, which defines the wasted SNP era.

An incalculable waste of time, money and energy which blindly refuses to see the financial, security, cultural and familial benefits of the union.

Division is the SNP’s toxic legacy. Inherently harmful, it has also been a distraction from the basic tasks of governance.

Scotland desperately needs politicians and government to better understand the basics of economics and of human psychology.

They would understand that empowering people with education and opportunity is how you incentivise them to work hard and take risks by launching a business.

They would understand that people are further encouraged when they operate in a fair society which recognises and rewards their industry, sacrifice and risk taking.

They would understand that ever higher taxes, and regulations, along with a bloated welfare culture, are the antidote to aspiration. This asphyxiates innovation and disincentivises business to invest, take risks and create employment.

Our party understand all of this. And we believe that many Scots share our common-sense values.

They understand that the current direction of travel will lead us towards a bleak version of Scotland in 2046. There is, however, another path.

A path that instead leads us to a strong devolved parliament focused on economic growth, not daft fringe issues like gender self-ID, and which understands that growth is the only credible way to increase public spending.

The Scotland 2046 that I want will banish the sickening incompetence which sees billions squandered on failed government projects.

We can stick a metaphorical fat jab into Scotland’s vast state sector which often appears to be more interested in serving its own narrow self-interests instead of serving the public.

We can allow people to keep as much of their money as possible by lowering wasteful spending and we demand honesty, transparency and accountability from those in power.

We can embrace new technology and be at the forefront of the impending Artificial Intelligence revolution, and harness renewables while also embracing clean and green new nuclear power to maintain energy security.

There are two versions of Scotland in 2046.

Stick with the status quo and you get Version 1: Poorer, smaller, weaker, divided and less stable.

Or take the other path for Version 2: Richer, stronger, healthier, united and more stable.

I know which I want.

By Anas Sarwar MSP, Leader of the Scottish Labour Party

Politics is all about building a society that unlocks the potential of our people.

A society that looks after those in need.

And a society that is constantly working to create a brighter future for our young people.

That is what drives me – handing over a Scotland to the next generation that is stronger, happier, healthier and wealthier than the one we inherited.

This is a precious duty that we have to the next generation, and it is a challenge we must rise to.

But the simple fact is that if we keep carrying on as we are at the minute, the Scotland of 20 years’ time will be a shadow of the one we can achieve.

As it stands today, too many things are getting worse for people in Scotland rather than better.

Across our public services, our economy and our institutions talent is going wasted, opportunities are being squandered and potential is being left untapped.

There is no quick fix to the challenges we face – no silver bullet.

What we need is an overhaul of how Scotland is governed and a multi-spoke approach to tackle all of the challenges and blockages before us.

After 20 years of SNP rule, Scotland is stuck in a rut, and our future is more uncertain than ever.

From an aging population to economic stagnation, the need for action is clear.

That’s why we need fundamental change starting this year.

Crucial to fixing the problems we face is getting our public services back on track – and no service is more important than the NHS.

The NHS is the bedrock of our society. It looks after us all in our hour of need and it plays a central role in ensuring we have a healthy, active workforce.

But the truth is that 20 years of SNP failure has left our NHS on life support.

One in six Scots are on NHS waiting lists. A&E departments are in chaos. And cancer targets are routinely missed.

This is putting lives at risk, leaving Scots waiting in pain and anxiety and is holding our economy back.

That’s why as First Minister, I will oversee the greatest restructuring of the NHS in the history of devolution.

We will take on the top-heavy management that is sucking up resources and staff time, slash the bureaucratic web of health boards and empower doctors and nurses on the frontline.

We will declare a waiting times emergency to clear the backlogs and launch an emergency mental health service, so Scots get the help they need.

This is the change our NHS needs.

But our plans don’t stop there.

Education is an engine of progress and social mobility.

But the last two decades have seen our schools slip down international league tables and our universities and colleges lurch from financial crisis to crisis.

Our schools – once the envy of the world – are now facing rising violence and falling standards.

Enough is enough – as First Minister I will ban mobile phones in classrooms to make classes safe places for learning again.

And we will connect our colleges and universities to our economic strategy so we can provide the training, education and apprenticeships young Scots need to thrive and secure the jobs of the future.

Education as a springboard to prosperity and social mobility.

But fixing our public services is just one of the tasks before us.

The two decades have seen economic potential wasted by a Scottish Government that is content to let our country be an economics-free zone and that is held back by out-of-date ideology.

As First Minister, I will use every lever at my disposal to drive economic growth, jobs and development.

We will have an economic directorate at the heart of the First Minister’s office that is tasked with unlocking Scotland’s potential.

We will focus on regional economic development to support and nurture growth in every part of Scotland.

We will fundamentally re-draw our business rates scheme to unshackle our businesses and create jobs and prosperity.

And we will end the SNP’s ideological block on new nuclear power to secure our clean energy future and deliver the high-skill, high-pay jobs of the future that we need.

New thinking to unlock the potential of our country.

This is the change we need to see if we are to have a thriving, healthy and prosperous Scotland in twenty years’ time.

But it’s not just the tired politics of today that must be swept aside – the whole political culture must be reset.

No clearer example can be seen for this than the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital (QEUH) scandal.

The Scotland of 20 years’ time cannot be one where families are pitted against the state and let down in their hour of need.

We need to fix our services and get our economy back on track – but we must also return decency, transparency and honesty to our politics.

This is the task we face to deliver a better Scotland in 2046.

By Gillian Mackay MSP, Co-leader of the Scottish Green Party

Last summer me and my husband became parents for the first time. Having just returned from maternity leave a lot of my thoughts are on what kind of country my son Callan will grow up in.

There are a lot of things that really concern me. In Falkirk, where we live, we have seen cynical bad faith actors trying to divide our communities, with anti-refugee protests outside hotels.

Along the road from us in Grangemouth, where I grew up, we are seeing the closure of a plant that stood there for generations, creating anxiety and uncertainty for workers and their families.

The national picture is no clearer. With Brexit biting and an economy that gives even more power to corporate interests we are seeing huge strains on household budgets and families struggling to make ends meet.

Meanwhile we could be facing a hard right Reform government that is offering scapegoats rather than solutions.

None of it has to be this way. Scotland has so much going for it and so much potential. We can be a fairer, greener and more equal society that uses the immense resources at our fingertips to build a country that works for everyone.

But we won’t be able to do that without action. If we are to reach our potential then we need to be planning for the future.

One reason the INEOS closure has struck such a devastating blow to Grangemouth is that, despite the Scottish and UK governments knowing the plant was on borrowed time, there were no plans in place to transition it and secure a future for the workers and for local people who rely on it.

I’m worried that we are seeing a similar approach to the nearby Mossmorran plant which is set to lose workers in a matter of months and to the North East where oil and gas jobs have been in long-term decline.

There is nothing inevitable about this story of loss. If the political will is there, we can ensure that it is these communities that are at the heart of a green transition. Our communities don’t need empty words. They need real plans to provide real jobs and opportunities.

The cost of inaction won’t just be felt by workers, it will also be felt by our climate. With global temperatures rising, every fraction of a degree matters.

If we are to have a liveable future, then we need to recognise the urgency of the climate crisis – we can’t continue with business as usual. Nor can we continue with a status quo where a wealthy few are raking in ever greater sums while hundreds of thousands of children are growing up in totally avoidable poverty.

There is nothing inevitable about such vast inequality. It is the result of decades of political decisions, and it is within our power to end it.

We have made some really important progress. I’m proud that the Scottish Greens introduced free bus travel for young people, removed peak rail fares and ended school meal debt.

These are all important steps that have helped to put money in people’s pockets and open up our country, but there is a lot more to do.

One of our biggest barriers has been Westminster. For every step forward we have taken, we have found ourselves having to offset damage being done by a Westminster system that we have little control over.

I voted No in the 2014 Scottish referendum and regretted it very quickly. We were promised a better future and ended up with a Tory Brexit that has hiked prices, cost jobs and curbed our right to live and travel abroad.

Now, as an MSP, I am constantly seeing and feeling the limitations of devolution. When it comes to wages, terms and conditions, taxation and real economic powers we are constantly trying to work with one hand tied behind our back.

So much has changed since 2014, and it is totally unsustainable for Scotland to be denied the chance to decide our own future.

I hope that the Scotland of 20 years from now is one where full powers lie with our parliament and people rather than the current constitutional limbo.

It’s not just the politics that are unknown. It is also the technology. So many of the most vital tools we use every day did not exist in 2006, and a lot of the ones we’ll be using 20 years from now do not exist today.

We need Scotland to be at the forefront of that technological development and to ensure that we are using it for good.

In an increasingly unstable world, nothing is certain. We all have a role to play in building a future where we can all thrive.

I hope that in 2046 Callan and his generation will be living in a Scotland we can all be proud of.

By Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP, Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats

What’s in two decades?

The lifespan of someone from birth to adulthood. Long enough for technology to really flex its muscles.

Since the mid-2000s we’ve gone from flip phones to smart phones. We’ve made giant leaps in everything from gene editing to vaccines. Social media and online entertainment have become ubiquitous.

While we can argue about the ethics or merits of many of these changes, twenty years offers sufficient opportunity for substantial change.

And that is why it can be so frustrating when you look back. The SNP have had almost twenty years to improve things for the people of this country, but they have failed to deliver anything like the level of political change that our country needs.

Scotland is my home, and I’m in politics because I know how much this country has going for it. From universities to food and drink we are world leaders, but often that is despite our government, not because of them.

I want to play my part in realising its potential.

Whether it’s in Edinburgh or Inverness, Galloway or Golspie, when I’m out knocking doors, I hear how hard people are finding things.

They’re fed up with the 8am rushes to see a GP, with the endless waits to get the hip or knee operation they desperately need.

They’re struggling with the cost of living, and the sky-high energy bills every month.

They’re worried Scottish education just isn’t what it used to be and what it all means for their children’s futures.

The next two decades should be about delivering change with fairness at its heart, so that we can get Scotland moving again. By 2045, everyone should be able to access the first-rate healthcare they need, when they need it.

Fixing workforce planning is integral to ending the long waits for treatment, getting you seen by a GP or dentist close to home, and creating a world-class mental health service.

The NHS must be ready to harness the benefits of new technology, for precision medicine that’s tailored to you, to help doctors analyse scans, and use speech-to-text tools to end the need for scribbled notes that have to be puzzled over later.

In the face of an ageing population, we have to fix care to fix the NHS.

Right now, on any given day, around 2,000 Scots are stuck in hospital, despite being well enough to leave. It’s as bad as ever. There are so many people stuck in hospital who should be in care homes or looked after at home. It means hospitals are backed up, overwhelming A&E and causing ambulances to be stacked up outside.

I want to transform our care system: people should be able to access the care they need at home or in the community. It means giving carers, paid and unpaid, a fair deal. By attracting more people into the profession who can deliver quality care both at home and in the community, we’d free up space in hospital and get more people seen.

That wouldn’t just be good for the health of our nation but for the wealth of it too. By bringing down waiting lists, we can help hundreds of thousands of Scots return to work and get on in life. It would be a massive, turbo-charging boost for our economy.

Likewise, by 2045, it’s safe to bet our economy will look vastly different from how it does now. From how we travel to how we heat our homes to how we communicate, it will be a totally different world.

Right now, too many people are getting to the end of the month worrying about making ends meet.

We need to harness Scotland’s economic strengths to ensure a steady supply of good jobs and ensure that people benefit from the rollout of Scottish renewables. That’s why at May’s election we will have a realistic plan to help you with the cost of living by insulating cold homes and using Scottish renewable energy to drive down household bills.

A stronger economy will also come from getting Scottish education back to its best, overhauling planning and fixing the UK’s broken relationship with Europe.

We also need to start rebuilding and upgrading Scotland’s infrastructure after years of neglect under the SNP.

Rural Scotland should be brilliantly connected to other parts of the country. Dangerous trunk roads should be fully dualled. Shetland should have tunnels connecting its islands. Scotland should have a reputation for some of the best ferries in the world- not a dreary record of fiasco.

In May, no matter where you live in Scotland, you can vote for change with fairness at its heart by backing the Scottish Liberal Democrats on your second, peach-coloured, regional ballot paper.

The election will determine the direction that Scotland takes.

Scotland deserves better, and with the Scottish Liberal Democrats you can vote for it.

By Graham Simpson MSP

Thank you to Carnegie UK for asking me to contribute to this series of essays on what I would like Scotland to be like in 20 years’ time.

Although I am a Reform MSP my thoughts here are just that, mine and mine alone.

First, they have set an impossible task and secondly, I won’t be a politician in 20 years’ time and might not even be around.

If I am, I will be in my 80s so let me start there.

If I have made it that far and am still living where I do now, then I will require things to be better than they are.

I do not have a decent bus service and, given that I might be able to drive at that point this could be an important point.

That’s one of the reasons why we need a better regional transport system in Strathclyde and the work of SPT in that regard is something I support.

I will undoubtedly need to be able to access health services a lot easier than I can now.

I do hope the long-awaited app where you can book GP appointments and get access to your records is with us by then, but if the SNP are still in power then we could still be waiting.

I hope the constitutional grievances are long gone and that we have a Scottish government which by that point has been concentrating on making public services work far better for some time.

Health and social care must pivot decisively towards prevention and person-centred support.

By 2046, a mature, integrated care system – which I might need at that point – should provide seamless pathways from home to acute care, with data-enabled coordination and family carers supported as key partners.

I hope that if I do need to go into care, having paid taxes all my life, that my family will not be wiped out financially.

Mental health services—especially for children and young people—should be accessible early, community-based, and stigma-free.

Schools should be empowered and well-resourced, combining strong core literacy and numeracy with creative, digital, and vocational pathways.

A universal early years guarantee—high-quality, flexible childcare and family support—will reduce inequality at its roots.

Justice services should focus on rehabilitation, community sentencing, and violence prevention, reducing reoffending and strengthening public safety.

But those who need to be punished should be, so I expect there to be more jails.

To make prevention real, we need cross-government outcome budgeting, so departments invest jointly where it saves downstream costs—safe housing, community mental health, active travel, and drug and alcohol support.

Frontline professionals must have time and autonomy to collaborate; data-sharing must be safe, ethical, and useful and funding must be multi-year to break the cycle of short-termism.

A decent home is foundational to wellbeing. I said this recently at Reform’s rally in Falkirk.

Scotland should aim to build and retrofit at pace: energy efficient social housing, resilient rural homes, and accessible designs for an ageing population.

Planning should prioritise compact, connected places with green corridors, high-quality public transport, and safe walking and cycling.

A balanced rental market—fair standards, efficient redress, and predictable regulation—will protect tenants while encouraging investment. Community land trusts and local ownership models can help anchor value in places rather than extract it.

Digital infrastructure must be universal, affordable, and secure. Public service platforms should be designed around user journeys.

Data should be used to improve outcomes—not to surveil—and governed by robust public interest rules. Democratic renewal requires reweaving the civic fabric: participatory budgeting at scale; citizens’ assemblies for complex trade-offs and open institutions that communicate clearly and listen actively.

Culture, sport, and libraries are not luxuries—they are the places where civic life happens and belonging is built.

None of this will happen by chance. Scotland should codify long-termism: independent fiscal and wellbeing institutions; child poverty, and productivity; and stability in key policies across parliaments. We should measure what matters—wellbeing dashboards alongside GDP, distributional impacts alongside averages—and learn transparently from what works and what doesn’t.

Leadership, across politics and society, must be courageous enough to share credit, accept scrutiny, and hold the line on reforms that serve future generations.

Let me also hope that the Scottish Parliament is working more effectively by that point.

If we commit to these principles—stewardship, trust, and opportunity—Scotland in 2046 will be a place where people can build good lives: secure, creative, and connected to each other and the natural world.

That is a future worth working for, patiently and ambitiously, together.