Programme

Financing the Future

Carnegie UK explored what an approach to public revenue raising and spending with collective wellbeing at its heart could look like. Through this programme, we sought to explore and examine what a collective wellbeing approach to our public finances – the way governments raise and spend public money – could look like across the UK.

£1,226 billion

The UK’s public sector is forecast to spend £1,226 billion in 2024/25, the most it has ever spent in cash terms.

One in
five

Local Council Leaders surveyed by the Local Government Authority in 2023 said they were likely to declare bankruptcy within 15 months.

37.4
million

In 2024 HMRC figures showed there are 37.4 million taxpayers in the UK.

Project summary

Carnegie UK’s Financing the Future programme began in May 2024. The programme seeks to explore and examine what a collective wellbeing approach to our public finances – the way governments raise and spend public money – could look like across the UK.

To help us understand the policy context, build evidence and insight we delivered a series of discussions and engagements, and commissioned and produced research into some of the key issues, perspectives and emerging practice on this topic.

  • With our expert associate Eleanor Ryan, we set out current spend, tax and fiscal policy issues in a policy discussion paper which seeks opinion on the merit, challenges and opportunities associated with exploring what a new social contract between the citizen and state focussed on collective wellbeing could and should look like.
  • We hosted four roundtable discussions in Glasgow, Cardiff, Newcastle and Belfast respectively, bringing together experts in academia, business, economics, government, public policy and the third sector to grapple with some of the big fiscal policy challenges we face and issues highlighted in our discussion paper.
  • We partnered with The Social Agency to explore public understanding and perceptions of taxation across the UK. This research shows that dominant perceptions of tax and spend – that it is not fair, not delivering, and not something the public can change – are negative and entrenched.
  • We identified the need for practical and actionable guidance to support governments seeking to better embed wellbeing approaches in spending and finance. Dr Cressida Gaukroger produced a paper for Carnegie UK which examines global examples, innovative tools, and emerging practices that have the potential to transform public spending.

Conclusions

The financial issues we face as a country are complex and there appears to be limited political appetite to engage openly with the public on this.

However the status quo in relation to our fiscal policy making is neither sustainable nor working  to deliver long-term policy outcomes across the country. A change of approach is needed. One that enables bold ideas and incisive leadership alongside deliberate and sustained efforts to bring people along and engage them meaningfully in grappling with these issues.

UK policymakers looking to make progress toward a public finance approach which prioritises wellbeing should:

Short term policy priorities (1 – 5 years)

  • Governments across the UK should move to monitoring and accounting for second round fiscal effects (rather than just second round economic effects) as standard in official projections and use them to weight and inform policy decisions. This should include a clear approach to the capturing, offsetting and reinvestment of savings in support of preventative policy interventions and spending commitments.
  • Learning from New Zealand and building on current UK practice, wellbeing Cost Benefit Analysis should be better adopted into central budgeting process across the governments of the UK to ensure departmental budgets are built around collective wellbeing priorities. This would help identify areas of maximum impact from policy investments and serve as a valuable tool for HMT and governments to build public service capability in planning, measuring and delivering for wellbeing outcomes.
  • To address clear challenges in public awareness and understanding of the UK tax system, governments should deliver a deliberate and targeted communications programme around tax spending in the UK and devolved nations with a focus on accessibility and clarity. This should include openly setting out UK’s tax position in an international context. Such steps to improve trust and communication will be necessary to secure public support for wider or more radical tax reforms.

Longer term policy priorities (5+ years)

  • Open data on taxation and tax spending should be harmonised and standardised across all levels of devolution in the UK. Data collection process should be reviewed and improved to help inform improved policy making.
  • Consideration should be given to how devolved governments in the UK (potentially including combined mayoralties) could acquire enhanced levels of borrowing powers to boost upfront investment in major preventative initiatives.
  • Deliberate effort is needed to bring greater coherence and accountability to the UK’s fiscal policy environment. The current policy landscape for tax and spend issues across the UK is complex and incoherent, having been added to ad-hoc by successive governments. Operationally, this makes developing and scaling new/proven fiscal policy approaches difficult. Consideration should be given to engaging the public in a deliberative process to build cross-party consensus for a new fiscal set-up.  Plans for enhanced subsidiarity and the process of establishing new Combined Mayoral Authorities in England could prove a valuable entry point for this.

Want to find out more?

Our key contact for this programme is Jo McGilvray

   [email protected]

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